The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem Project (BCLME), which is a regional initiative between Angola, Namibia and South Africa, is aimed at sustainable integrated management of the Benguela Current ecosystem. The project is in a developmental phase and one of the key activities identified in the proposed work plan has been the synthesis and assessment of existing information on the BCLME. The five key areas that have been identified for review are the following: fisheries, oceanography and environmental variability, diamond mining, offshore oil and gas, and coastal zone development.

2.0 Objectives of the Study

This study aims to provide an overview of the social economy of the fisheries, marine diamond mining, offshore oil and gas exploration and production and coastal zone activities of the Benguela Current region, and their current and future impact on the BCLME.

3.0 Terms of Reference

The following information needs were expressed in the terms of reference for this study:

1. to provide a short historical review of the socio-economic importance of each of the above named sectors at both regional and national levels;

2. to specify the importance of each sector in terms of GDP and employment at regional and national levels;

3. to provide information on the prevailing trends in demographic growth, poverty and environmental degradation;

4. to identify trans-boundary socio-economic issues, where these exist;

to provide information on the characteristics of the labour force and the nature of human resource development;

to provide information on relevant policy and legislative issues.

In addition, it is intended that the study will detail key socio-economic threats to the development of the Benguela Current Region and will identify the root causes of these problems, as well as their linkages with other sectors. The investigation will also detail existing gaps in knowledge of the social economy of the project region.

4.0 Methodology

Due to the limited scope of this investigation, the report which follows is based primarily on a desk study derived from secondary data, including official statistics and previously conducted research, both published and unpublished. The analysis was, however, constrained by the paucity of quantitative and qualitative data on Angola, where the ongoing war has severely restricted the collation of demographic and socio-economic information. The analysis included a limited number of interviews with officials familiar with marine industrial activities and issues in the Benguela Current region

A feature of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem Project is the attempt to examine and address the Benguela Current system in an integrated and holistic fashion. However, whilst the system itself has a trans-national character, it also has a variable impact on different countries in the region. For this reason, discussion on the social economy is at the level of individual countries.

Map 1. The BCLME Study Area: The Coasts of Angola, Namibia and South Africa

Source: Morant, P., 1999

Angola achieved its independence in 1975 after four centuries of Portuguese colonial rule. Taking into account the anti-colonial struggles that preceded independence, the country has been ravaged by more than three decades of war, which have affected every sector of social and economic activity. Due to the prolonged fighting, there has been a substantial dislocation of the population, productive activities have been disrupted and infrastructure (roads, railways, bridges etc.) has been destroyed. Despite the fact that the country has a well endowed and diverse natural resource base, overcoming the destruction of the war years is likely to be a lengthy process, more especially as no end to the fighting appears evident at present.

The country has an estimated population of 11 million and an annual population increase of 2.7% per annum. Due to the war, which has forced many people to flee from the rural areas, the rate of urbanisation is rapid at 5.7% per annum, and currently some 40% of the population live in urban centres. Reflective of this, the number of people living in towns and cities has doubled during the last 25 years. At present rates of increase it is estimated that close to 60% of the population will be living in urban centres within the next 20 years.

As a consequence of the war, the majority of the population live in the west of the country and many of these reside in informal settlements surrounding the urban centres along the coast. The country has a coastline of 1 050 km and 7 of the country's 18 provinces (including Cabinda) front the Atlantic seaboard. Roughly 20% of the total population currently live in the capital Luanda, while the towns of Benguela, Lobito, Namibe, Cabinda, Sumbe and Tombua all have growing populations. However, with a climate which is predominantly semi-arid or arid, the coastal region has relatively limited agricultural potential. This implies that, in the absence of other income generating opportunities, the population will need to rely increasingly on the sea for their livelihoods. With a poor urban infrastructure, there is a very real danger that a rapidly expanding urban population will pose a serious pollution threat, as untreated sewage is discharged into the sea in increasing volumes. A shortage of water, is likely to be a further consequence of the rapid pace of urbanisation.

Despite a favourable resource endowment, Angola is currently one of the poorest countries in the world and in terms of the UNDP Human Development Index, it ranked 156 out of 174 countries in 1998. Evidence of this poverty is to be found in a number of key indicators: the

Map 2. The Coastline of Angola Indicating Provincial Boundaries

Source: Morant, P., 1999

GDP per capita was estimated to be US$ 641 in 1995 (down from US$ 846 in 1990), life expectancy is low at 47 years, the infant mortality rate of 170 per 1 000 and the under five mortality rate of 292 per 1 000 are amongst the highest in the world. (UNDP; 1998) The incidence of HIV/AIDS is unknown, although trends elsewhere in southern Africa suggest that it is likely to be high.

Unemployment and under employment are reported to be high in the urban centres, although statistics are not available. Skills levels are low and the adult literacy level in 1995 was 42%. As a consequence of the war, roughly 20% of the labour force is employed in the armed forces.

Fiscal shortages at the central government level have meant that there has been little maintenance of infrastructure or social services. At the same time, a lack of investment capital has meant that there has been no new development either in terms of facilities or in the expansion of services. With natural increases in the population and an influx of refugees into the urban centres, this has led to an over-utilisation of existing services and a general decline in standards. The current estimate of the population of Luanda is 4 million, in a city which has an infrastructure designed for 500 000 people. This situation has been compounded by a series of droughts, which precipitated a further wave of rural/urban migration.

Although no data are available, it is evident that a degree of lawlessness prevails in most parts of the country. Within the hinterland of the country, and especially within UNITA held areas, human rights abuses are believed to be wide spread and the military commandeer provisions from the local population without compensation. In the major urban centres, the influence of the military is not as marked, but an underpaid police force is known to extort money and provisions from the ordinary citizens. In addition, wide spread unemployment and poverty has increased the incidence of crime, particularly in Luanda.

The education system throughout Angola is extremely weak. Schools are run down and poorly equipped, teaching material is scarce and many pupils lack even basic texts. Educational standards are extremely low and many schools cater for grade I pupils alone. There is a general shortage of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios are 38:1 on average, and are as high as 75:1 in Namibe.

During the course of the past decade or more, the health service and health infrastructure have deteriorated severely. Buildings are in a state of disrepair, facilities are poor and there is a severe shortage of medicines. Where there were 52 hospitals in 1989, this had declined to 31 in 1993. During the same period, the number of doctors decreased nationally from 736 to 630, and the number of nurses from 9 182 to 5 780. The distribution of health facilities is skewed, and the major concentration of health services is to be found in urban centres. Whilst there were 5 797 inhabitants per doctor in Luanda in 1991, the figure for the rest of the country was 1 per 15 138 inhabitants. In 1993 there were just 1.9 beds per 1 000 inhabitants in the country. (Governo do Angola; 1995)

Primary health care services have deteriorated badly and immunisation and basic hygiene programmes have all but collapsed. This has influenced the prevalence of diseases which are easily preventable. Accurate health statistics are not available, but the principle causes of death, in order of significance, are reported to be malaria, diarrhoea, acute respiratory ailments, and measles.

6.3 Physical Infrastructure

The road infrastructure throughout the country, where not damaged or destroyed by the war, has fallen into a state of disrepair and causes serious wear and tear on vehicles. The road network in much of the country is limited, and roads, which are in extremely poor condition, are frequently impassable in wet weather. A coastal highway, which is mainly surfaced, extends from Soyo in the north to Namibe in the south. Namibe is connected to Namibia via Lubango. There is no formal road transport system in operation and the public must rely on private vehicles for travel and the transportation of goods.

Although railway lines extend into the interior from Luanda, Porto Amboim, Lobito and Namibe, only the Luanda and Lobito lines remain functional and then only to a limited extent. The rail network in most other parts of the country has been destroyed in the war and ports are in need of rehabilitation. Luanda is linked to other parts of the world by an international air services and to the main centres of Angola by scheduled regional services, where these are not disrupted by fighting.

Despite the existence of both surface and groundwater reserves, urban centres suffer from continuous water shortages. This is due to rapid population increases and the inadequacy of water-delivery systems, which are in need of major repair and upgrading. Problems in the rural areas are equally serious. A shortage of groundwater during recent droughts has led to extensive stock losses and has accelerated emigration from the rural areas.

The fishing sector is potentially one of the most economically viable industries in Angola and currently rates third after oil and diamond mining. At present it is estimated to provide half of the animal protein consumed in the country. Due to the concentration of the population along the coast, fishing is an important source of employment and food for a substantial proportion of the population. In many coastal settlements it is the only source of livelihood for the poorer segments of the population. Domestic consumption of fish, which was estimated at 11.1 kg per person per annum in 1994, is the highest in the BCLME.

In recent years the fisheries sector has suffered from mismanagement and under-investment. In addition, climatic factors (the warming of the Benguela current) and unregulated exploitation of fish stocks by domestic and foreign fleets, have led to a steady decline in catches. Thus a total national catch of 104 000 tonnes in 1989 had declined to 89 000 tonnes in 1993. The total reported foreign catch declined from 218 000 tonnes to 42 000 tonnes over the same period. Despite this, recent studies suggest that the total number of workers in the fisheries sector has increased from around 30 000 in 1992 to 50 000 in 1998, although it must be stated that some of these were not fully employed and supplemented their incomes through agriculture and commercial activities.

What is of significance, moreover, is the fact that while catches by state owned companies have been in steady decline, there has been a growth in catches by private fishing firms. This is due to the government's commitment to privatise the fishing industry, hitherto a state run enterprise. While the large fishing companies struggle to remain economically viable, there has been a growth in the number of small private fishing companies, which are now responsible for some 30% of the total catch. In 1995 there were more than 23 000 artisinal fishermen, landing their catches at some 105 controlled landing places, predominantly in the central provinces of Luanda, Benguela and Kwanza Sul. At the time there were an estimated 4 677 boats, ranging in size and sophistication from un-motorised canoes to 8-12 m vessels with inboard motors and some preservation facilities. (Hampton, et al 1999) Although available data suggests that some fisheries resources have been overexploited, it is also likely that that others are still under-utilised. This is evident from the fact that estimated total allowable catch (TAC) limits have often not been reached, and the total industrial catches before independence were some three times higher than they are now, due largely to the operational constraints imposed by the civil war.

The fish processing industry includes the production of fishmeal, freezing, salting and half-curing of fish. A variety of seafood including crabs, cockles and mussels are also harvested for local consumption and for export. Poor management, the absence of a marketing infrastructure and a lack of investment, however, has led to a serious decline in the fish processing industry. With the privatisation of state owned enterprises, some regeneration of the sector might be expected.

At present, roughly half of the revenue from fish and fish products comes from exports, which varied in value from US$ 15.1 million in 1993 to US$ 25.3 million in 1995. Prawns, which comprised 48% of the total revenue from the fishery sector in 1995, are the most important export product. (Hampton, et al; 1999) Europe is the principal market for the export of prawns and demersal fish, Japan for tuna and crab, and other African countries for small pelagic fish, including horse mackerel.

Angola’s marine fisheries are managed and developed in terms of the Fisheries Act of 1992, which covers, inter alia, such aspects as planning, licensing, surveillance and enforcement. The effective regulation of the sector, however, is constrained by a shortage of operating funds, poorly paid and trained staff and inadequate equipment (including vessels, vehicles and communications equipment). Information systems also lack organisation and coherence. A difficulty in establishing the status of fish stocks, in particular, constrains efforts to ensure effective management.

Research is carried out by the Instituto de Investigacao Pesqueira (Institute of Fisheries Research) and the Instituto de Desenvolvimento Pesca Artesenal (Institute for Development of Artisinal Fisheries) both of which fall under the Ministry of Fisheries and have headquarters in Luanda. Although both institutions are receiving donor support, and progress is being made in developing a data base on biological and oceanographic data, a lack of staff capacity and poorly maintained equipment are a serious constraint to effective systems management.

Angola has a viable onshore diamond-mining sector, although in the early 1990s this was sabotaged by the influx of thousands of illegal miners to the diamond fields. This led to widespread uncontrolled digging and smuggling and to the estimated loss of over 50% of the government's total potential revenue from alluvial diamonds. Changes in the law have subsequently given ENDIAMA, the state mining company, sole rights for prospecting, mining and marketing of diamonds in Angola. ENDIAMA also has the powers to enter into contracts with foreign investors either for new mining ventures or for joint ventures. As a consequence of the tightening up of legislation, output has improved and in 1996 3.7 million carats were produced, contributing roughly 9% to the country's GDP. (Clarke, et al.; 1998)

To date, no authorised offshore prospecting or mining has been undertaken in Angola. Companies such as De Beers and CDM have, however, been negotiating with the Angolan government for rights for some years. This follows De Beers plans to spend US$ 75 million on prospecting three onshore prospects in Quela, Mavinga and Lunda Norte. Despite this, no offshore prospecting licences have been issued by the Angolan government thus far.

The oil and gas industry is situated predominantly in the Cabinda enclave and in the province of Zaire. The wells, which are located both on and offshore make an important contribution to the Gross Domestic Product, and in 1998 this amounted to 60% of the GDP. The sale of crude oil also represents by far the major generator of foreign earnings. Offshore oil mining began in 1966 following discovery, by the Gulf Oil Company, of an oilfield at Cabinda. Since then, a succession of new fields have been discovered, including one of Africa’s largest discovered by Elf Aquitaine in 1997. The total estimated proven recoverable reserves of crude petroleum totalled 5142 million barrels in 1997, when production averaged 720 000 barrels per day. (Clark, et al.; 1998)

Despite the fact that the interior of the country has considerable agricultural potential, the war, land mines and recurring drought have brought the sector to a standstill. Along the coastal zone, the arid climate and poor soils have limited arable agriculture to alluvial silts along the banks of seasonal and perennial rivers. Some millet, sorghum and maize are grown in these areas but the overall output is extremely limited. All pre-existing commercial farms have ceased to operate and most production is for domestic consumption or for sale in informal markets. A shortage of

investment capital and a poor marketing infrastructure remain a constraint to the regeneration of this sector.

Although there are relatively few households involved in livestock farming, the sector as a whole has potential. Due to cultural factors and a poor marketing infrastructure, the off-take rate is low and probably does not exceed 1% or 2% per annum. Households also own small flocks of sheep and goats, which are consumed domestically.

The retail sector, although limited, is an important source of employment and income generation. Trade in commodity goods (food, clothing etc.) is particularly lively in the informal sector on the urban peripheries. Formal enterprise, in contrast, suffers from a shortage of capital and the effects of hyperinflation. During the period from August 1994 to August 1995 the inflation rate was 2 040% (UNICEF; 1995). Due to the national fiscal crisis, there is a general shortage of cash in circulation - a factor which impacts negatively on the development of commerce. There is little commercial activity in the rural areas.

Although Angola has some tourist potential in the form of its national parks, beaches, hot springs and other attractions, the necessary infrastructure is lacking. Hotel facilities are poor or non-existent, while the absence of tour operators, the ongoing war and poor roads restrict access to tourist attractions.

The escalating civil war, together with Angola's participation in the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, serves as a major constraint to development. Despite the country's evident potential, little progress might be expected while hostilities continue, not least in terms of attracting foreign investment. Even with the cessation of fighting however, the realisation of the country's development potential will require significant levels of capital investment.

The fishing industry, in particular, has definite potential, both for the export of fish and for the processing of fish products. With the advent of peace and the privatisation of fishing companies, increased investment in infrastructure is likely to lead to a regeneration of the industry. The enforcement of exclusion zones in Angolan territorial waters will, however, be necessary to eliminate over exploitation of fish stocks by foreign fishing fleets. The forward and backward economic linkages associated with the reestablishment of the fishing industry are likely to stimulate economic activity in the coastal towns.

The livestock sector, similarly, holds some potential provided a marketing infrastructure can be established and off-take rates increased. However, prospects for the export of beef, in particular, are constrained by the fact that Angola has yet to establish effective measures to control livestock diseases. The country has considerable mineral deposits, which in addition to oil and diamonds include deposits of copper, zinc, gold and uranium. Tourism holds some potential along the Atlantic seaboard, but development of this sector will depend on considerable investment (in tourist accommodation in particular) and a general improvement of the transport infrastructure.

Proclaimed a German colony in 1884, Namibia came under South African colonial rule in 1915 and received its independence in 1990 following a protracted liberation struggle. Despite its size, Namibia is not a richly endowed land. A significant part of the countryside is classified as desert or semi-desert, and with the exception of certain regions, neither the climate nor the soil is suitable for arable agriculture. These factors notwithstanding, according to the UNDP Human Development Index, Namibia is classified as a country of medium human development, ranking 107^th out a total of 174 countries. In 1998 the GDP per capita was US$1984 although this figure masks a severe income distribution skew, since the top 5% of the population account for 60% to 70% of the GDP. (UNDP; 1998a) Although difficult to compute accurately, the unemployment rate was estimated to be 22.9% in 1997.

Human settlement along the Namibian coast is confined to five principal nodes: Henties Bay, Swakopmund, Walvis Bay, Luderitz and Oranjemund. Further settlement is restricted by a lack of water and by the Namib desert which forms a natural barrier to the interior of the country. The direct impacts of the fisheries, diamond and oil/gas sectors are thus fairly localised. That stated, however, these sectors do have an extensive indirect impact on the country as a whole. This is due to the small size of the population, and the fact that mining and fishing, along with tourism, are the mainstays of the Namibian economy. In part due to the factor endowment and in part due to the impact of colonial rule, the Namibian economy has not been extensively diversified. In that regard, the GDP has historically been dominated by four major sectors: mining and quarrying, general government, wholesale and retail, and agriculture and fishing. As a consequence, the economy remains heavily dependent on South Africa.

The country has an estimated 1.65 million inhabitants, the majority of whom (60%) live in the seven northern regions. The predominant mode of production in these regions is agro-pastoralism, although most households rely on multiple income sources (petty commodity trading, remittances, pensions, etc.) for their livelihoods.

The coastal population of Namibia is concentrated in four major centres; Swakopmund, Walvis Bay, Luderitz and Oranjemund; (Henties Bay has a population or 4 000 or less out of season). The first of these is associated with tourism, the second with the fisheries sector, the third with fisheries and diamond mining while the latter owes its existence solely to the diamond mining

Source: Morant, P., 1999

industry and, potentially, to gas. In early 1999 the coastal population was estimated to be around 100 000 people (or roughly 6.5% of the national population), although this is likely to be considerably higher in the peak holiday season.

The largest of the coastal towns is Walvis Bay which has an estimated population of 45 500. Available statistics, suggest that the population is growing at the rate of 6.5% per annum, although this increase is largely based on immigration to the town. At this rate of increase, the population of Walvis Bay will double in 11 to 12 years. It is evident that the growth rate of the town fluctuates annually, as a factor of both limited work opportunities elsewhere in the country and the perceived availability of employment in Walvis Bay.

Estimates based on births and deaths suggest a very low rate of natural increase of 0.1% per annum. Municipal statistics reveal that just 30% of the population were born in the town, while 35% have been resident for less than ten years and 24% have been resident for six years or less. On current estimates, 200 people per month are currently moving into Walvis Bay. These and other statistics illustrate the fact that Walvis Bay is very much a town of migrant workers, some of whom settle permanently and others of whom retain a base in the rural areas. An analysis of the place of origin of migrants to Walvis Bay is instructive: 53% of all people who settled in the town during the past 10 years came from the four regions which formerly comprised Owamboland, namely Ohangwena (15%), Omusati (16.35%), Oshana (13.7%) and Oshikoto (7.95%). 12% of all migrants came from elsewhere in the Erongo region, and 10.4% came from outside Namibia (with 6.3% coming from South Africa). (Municipality of Walvis Bay; 1997)

In view of the fact that a sizeable proportion of the population have come from areas of poor schooling in the north, and have themselves likely dropped out to seek work, educational levels are generally low. As a consequence, just 17.5% of the population of 15 years and older could be considered to be functionally literate (compared to the national norm of 24%). 12% of the population had attained Grade 12, but just 5.7% (363 people) had attained any form of post secondary training. The skills base of the workforce is generally low, with an estimated 48% falling into the unqualified category. Professionals made up 1.7%, managers 2.4%, administrators 7.4%, and technically qualified personnel 2.8%. (Municipality of Walvis Bay; 1997)

Municipal statistics revealed that in 1997 63.3% of the population were employed, 15.7% were unemployed and 21% were classified as economically inactive. Unemployment rates were higher among women (20.1%) than among men (12.7%). Of the estimated 5 500 economically active people, 1 473 (26%) were directly engaged in the fishing industry. The next most prominent sectors were retail and trade (6.9%), service industries (6.8%), government (4%), and manufacturing (3.8%). For much of the mid 1990s the fishing industry was in recession, and at one stage was stated to be operating at less than 30% of its capacity.

The recent establishment of an Export Processing Zone (EPZ) in Walvis Bay holds out the hope for the generation of a substantial number of jobs. By early 1998, five new industries had been established employing 550 workers. A further 4 factories were scheduled to begin operations in the months ahead, bringing the total number of work opportunities created to 1 500 by the end of 1998. This figure is expected to grow to between 5000 and 7000 by the year 2001. It is reported that at least 40% of those recruited to the new factories were recruited from the fishing industry. These workers were either already retrenched or else were offered more lucrative wages.

The primary household subsistence level (PHSL), the amount of money a household needs to satisfy its basic needs for food, clothing, shelter, energy, washing and cleaning for a family of five) was estimated in March 1997 to be N$1 217 per month for a family living in Walvis Bay. The average individual monthly income was found to be N$1 675 per month, marginally higher than PHSL. Earnings varied according to the sectors of employment. Workers in the fish processing industry, for example, earned on average N$ 1 154 per month, whilst those in manufacturing earned N$2 000. The retail and trade and service industries yielded wages of N$1 953 and N$1 998 per month respectively.

The incidence of savings is high, even amongst the lowest earning groups living in Walvis Bay North, which recorded an average of R300 saved per month. This data appears to confirm the view that substantial sums are transmitted back to the workers' homes elsewhere. Assuming that some 40% of the economically active population (some 2 200 workers) retain linkages with the north, and assuming (conservatively) that they each remit N$ 200 per month to their homes, this amounts to a transfer of over N$ 5 million per year.

Swakopmund, with a population of 28 000, is Namibia’s premier holiday resort. During the peak vacation periods over Christmas and Easter the population increases significantly, and certainly exceeds 40 000 people. A survey conducted in 1997 suggests that the population grew at a rate of 4.5% between 1991 and 1995. This increase was occasioned largely by an influx of work seekers into the town. However, despite overcrowding in the poorer suburbs, there is little informal housing in the town. In Namibian terms the resident population is relatively affluent, and in 1995 65% of households were estimated to earn N$ 4 000 or more. The mean household income was estimated to be N$ 3 918, although this figure is likely to be biased by a severe income distribution skew. Although the town has several manufacturing enterprises (including a brewery and a tannery), a substantial, and increasing, part of the economy is devoted to tourism. The towns growing popularity as a tourist resort will inevitably imply greater usage of the coastline for recreational purposes and for angling in particular.

The town port of Luderitz is the third largest settlement on the Namibian coast with a population of 16 000 people, the majority of whom derive their livelihoods from the fisheries sector (white fish and crayfish) and from the marine diamond industry. Like Walvis Bay to the north and Oranjemund to the south, many of the workers in Luderitz maintain strong family ties with the northern regions. Although the town has experienced some growth in recent years, this has not been as rapid as in Walvis Bay or Swakopmund due to the limited growth in job opportunities.

Oranjemund, which is situated at the mouth of the Orange River, was first settled in the 1930s. It became a closed company town in 1944 supporting CDM’s diamond mining activities. During the past decade there has been a progressive downscaling of the mine as onshore diamond deposits have been exhausted. Although some mining of the overburden will continue (largely by small contractors), the labour force which once exceeded 12 000 has more than halved in the previous decade and a half, although it is expected to stabilise at around 5 000 workers. This is because CDM’s diamond mining is increasingly moving offshore and into more capital intensive production. A loss of jobs in Oranjemund over the past decade has impacted negatively on many households in the regions of the former Owamboland. This is because diamond miners were amongst the best paid workers in Namibia, and a substantial part of there earnings was remitted to their families in the north. Although diamond mining will continue to be the mainstay of Oranjemund for the immediate, a number of plans have been mooted for the future of the town, including its development as a conference centre and as an onshore base for the Kudu gas field should it ever be developed.

A shortage of water poses a major constraint to the development of all coastal settlements and to the development of Walvis Bay and Swakopmund in particular. The Central Areas Water Master Plan has included a strategy to ensure a consistent supply of water to these latter two towns from dams and rivers in the centre and north of the country. The construction of a desalination plant for these centres, although not currently planned, might become a necessity in the longer run.

Social services in Namibia are variably distributed, and while the major towns (including those on the BCLME seaboard) are well served, access to education, health and welfare in the rural areas is often poor or non-existent. Considerable progress has, however, been made in both the reach and quality of service provision since independence, and this is reflected in a number of key social indicators. Thus access to safe water increased from 59% in 1991 to 76% in 1996, the number of schools increased by 21% between 1990 and 1997, adult literacy increased from 75% in 1990 to 81% in 1996 an so forth. However, gains in the health sector have been offset by the rapid increase in the incidence of HIV/AIDS. This is reflected in mortality and morbidity rates, and in live expectancy. AIDS has become the primary cause of death in Namibia, life expectancy has dropped from 61 years in 1991 to 44 in 1999, and the population growth rate which was 2.8% in 1990 is estimated to be 2.1% in 1999. (UNDP; 1998a) The impact of AIDS on the social economy of Namibia is likely to be severe and unless checked, could impact seriously on the future development of the country. Although exact figures are not known, the incidence of HIV/AIDS is reported to be high in Walvis Bay, Luderitz and Oranjemund. This may be attributed to the migratory nature of the work force, to the high incidence of single workers and to the presence of a sizeable number of sex workers.

Despite the size of the country proportionate to the population, Namibia has a relatively well developed infrastructure, particularly in the south and central regions. Railway lines connect the ports of Walvis Bay and Luderitz to the interior of Namibia and to South Africa, via the Keetmanshoop line to Upington. Plans for a trans-Kalahari line to Botswana have yet to be implemented. The road network in Namibia is extensive and the surfaced highways are generally well maintained. Both Walvis Bay and Luderitz are linked to the capital Windhoek by surfaced roads, whilst a good unsurfaced road extends northwards from Walvis Bay to the Skeleton Coast nature reserve. Walvis Bay is linked to Windhoek and Cape Town by services provided by Air Namibia and South African Airways. Luderitz is linked to Windhoek and Cape Town, via Oranjemund, by a regional service.

The sea off the Namibian coastline has an exceptionally high biological productivity due largely to the up-swelling of nutrients resulting from the Benguela current which flows northwards along the coast. Despite an initial abundance, however, the fishing resources of Namibia have been heavily overexploited in the past four decades. Uncontrolled exploitation of pelagic fish resources (especially pilchards) by South African fleets in the 1950s was followed in the mid-1960s by extensive fishing by other foreign fishing fleets, who seriously depleted stocks of hake and mackerel. Although gradual regeneration of fish stocks has been the outcome of the 200 nautical mile economic exclusion zone (EEZ) proclaimed in the early 1990s, the Namibian fishing industry at present is run-down and under-capitalised. Nevertheless, the industry is in the early stages of what many view as a strong recovery and it remains potentially one of the country's most promising sectors.

Provided the exclusion zone can be effectively controlled, the basis for effective fisheries management is already in place. Industrial fishing capacities and skills exist, there are no artisinal fisheries competing for the resources, and there is strong government support for development of the industry.

There are only two fishing harbours in Namibia: Walvis Bay and Luderitz; plans to construct a third harbour at Mowe Bay in the Skeleton Coast Park, have been held on abeyance following a recent feasibility study. Walvis Bay (with a maximum draught of 9 metres) is the only deep-water port in Namibia and is the main fishing harbour; it is also the location of virtually all processing industries and servicing facilities. Walvis Bay, is in most respects a complete harbour, capable of serving the needs of the locally based fishing fleet in respect to water, food, agents, repairs etc. Over and above the fish processing factories, there is also a factory producing tins for the canneries.

The Luderitz harbour, which primarily serves the rock lobster fishery, is capable of receiving vessels with a maximum draught of 6 metres. It has some servicing facilities (including a boat yard) but has limited processing facilities for canning or fishmeal operations. A new factory for the processing of white fish has, however, recently been constructed.

The primary products of the fishing industry in Namibia are canned pilchards, fishmeal, fish body oil, rock lobster and various processed white fish (smoked, dried and frozen). At present, only very small amounts are consumed locally, and practically all pelagic products are exported

to South Africa. Only rock lobster (exported to Japan and the United States) and white fish are exported to other countries.

Potentially the fishing sector in Namibia could play an important role in the national economy. In the late 1980s, following the collapse of pelagic fishing, the gross value of output from fishing was estimated at around R280 million and fish exports represented between 5% and 10% of total exports, around 3% to 4% of GDP. With the recent recovery of stocks, fish products accounted for 23% of all exports in 1996 (the second biggest foreign exchange earner after diamonds), and in 1995 fisheries contributed 7.7% to the GDP. At present 98% of the fish harvested are exported and only 2% are consumed domestically. Optimum projections predict that the fisheries sector will grow to 12% of the GDP in the early years of the new millennium.

The expansion of the fishing industry could also serve to increase job opportunities. During the peak years in the 1970s, the fishing sector employed as many as 11 000 workers; in the early 1990s this number dropped to between 4 000 and 5 000 workers, many of whom were only employed seasonally. With the increasing Namibianisation of the fishing fleet, however, employment in this sector increased to around 7 400 in 1997. It is estimated that more than 80% of crew members in the fishing fleet are now Namibians

Recent job losses in the fishing industry have in part been offset by the creation of jobs in the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) in Walvis Bay. This is because the new industries currently being established (plastics, fabrics etc.) have few linkages to the fishing industry and are not directly influenced by the fortunes of that sector. The EPZ industries, moreover, have already demonstrated the capacity to absorb surplus labour from the fishing industry. This also suggests that surplus labour from the Walvis Bay fishing industry will seek work in the higher paying EPZ manufacturing sector.

In 1990, as indicated, Namibia declared a 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone which has facilitated the regulation of fishing in its territorial waters. Policy in the fisheries sector is guided by a White Paper adopted by the National Assembly in 1991. The two principal themes of this policy document relate to the sustainability of fish stocks and increasing indigenisation of the sector. With regard to the latter, a policy statement issued in June 1993 provides clear direction on the granting of fishing rights and quotas to more disadvantaged sections of the society. Although the country has not prepared a national fisheries plan, the National Development Plan (NDP1) targets a rise in fish exports, and identifies 13 public investment priorities for the sector. These include 5 projects related to monitoring, control and surveillance, 3 for research, 3 for infrastructure and 2 for training.

The fisheries sector is currently managed by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources. The Ministry has responsibility for fisheries administration, surveillance, research and planning. In terms of the Sea Fisheries Act of 1992, the Ministry is advised by the Sea Fisheries Advisory Council, which provides advice on matters relating to the management and conservation of Namibia’s fisheries; it also provides advice on the determination of the TAC. There are four institutions which offer training for the fisheries sector. These are the University of Namibia, the Polytechnic of Namibia, the Walvis Bay Maritime School, and the Luderitz Maritime Training Centre. These four institutions provide training for the public sector, for the commercial fleet and for other SADC countries.

Despite the fact that the institutional infrastructure for the monitoring and control of the fisheries sector is satisfactory, there is a shortage of skilled personnel and general skills levels are in need of improvement. The equipment necessary for surveillance is also less than ideal. A further constraint to the effective control of the fisheries sector relates to the fact that the penalties and sanctions applicable under the Sea Fisheries Regulations of 1993 do not reflect the seriousness of the offences, and hence act as an insufficient deterrent to offenders. The Ministry has recently installed a sophisticated Fisheries Information Management System and this has been installed on 4 different Local Area Networks. The system will provide collated data on catches, landings, quotas, and fishing rights, in addition to data from processing plants and the registry of vessels.

The diamond mining industry in Namibia commenced in the early 1900s, following discoveries in the coastal area south of Luderitz. In 1908, the German colonial government granted the Deutsche Koloniale Gesellenschaft (DKG) exclusive rights to prospect for and exploit mineral deposits between the Orange River in the south and the 26th parallel in the north and stretching 100 km inland from the sea. The area, which became known as the Sperrgebiet, was cordoned off and access was strictly regulated, a practice which continues to this day. In 1920, following the South African take over of the then German South West Africa in 1915, the Anglo American Corporation gained control over the country’s diamond interests and formed the Consolidated Diamonds Mines of SWA (CDM). The CDM, which has subsequently become the Namdeb Diamond Company (a joint venture of De Beers and the Namibian government), continues to control the Sperrgebiet and have exclusive prospecting and mining rights until the year 2010.

Offshore concessions extend for the full length of the Namibian coastline, from the Orange River in the south to the Kunene River in the north. However, onshore licences extend 3 km offshore, thus ensuring that Namdeb controls most of the shallow water mining activities. Other major companies involved in the offshore diamond industry are Ocean Diamond Mining, and the Namibian West Coast Mining Company

Mining is by far the most important productive sector of the Namibian economy, and has historically provided the primary stimulus for infra-structural development and growth in the country. The significance of this sector may be seen in the fact that during the years 1986 - 1990, mining accounted for between 24.3% and 36.2% of the GDP, 72.8% to 82.5% of total export earnings and 27.6% to 50% of tax revenues. Despite the dominance of the mining sector in the Namibian economy, the industry is capital intensive and employs less than 5% of the formal workforce. (NEPRU; 1998)

The potentialities of the mining industry in Namibia notwithstanding, the sector was in recession for much of the 1980s. Thus production in 1990 was 70 - 75% of the level in 1980, and the employee numbers declined to a low of 13 900 compared to 19 700 in 1980. By 1997 the number of workers in the sector had fallen to 8 200. To a significant extent the decline can be attributed to the recessionary climate in world mineral markets (uranium in particular), in part precipitated by tumultuous changes in Europe and the Middle East. It can also be attributed to the unbalanced administrative structure and deficient legislative structure prevailing in the pre-independence era, both of which were inadequate to promote and to regulate the industry effectively. The country's uncertain political status prior to independence also served to discourage new investment, particularly in the sphere of exploration. The full effect of this decline, however, was not transmitted to the earning power of the industry, due to favourable export prices and the weakening of the Rand against trading partner currencies.

In the late 1990s mining remains the backbone of the Namibian economy, although a progressive decline is evident in the fact that where in 1981 its contribution to the GDP was 22%, its share had fallen to 16.7% in 1996. Despite these declines, mining is by far the biggest contributor to export earnings and in 1996 the sector accounted for 56% of all goods and services exported. (NEPRU; 1998)

For much of the past century on-shore diamond mining has made a significant contribution to the mining industry in Namibia. Prior to the mining of uranium, the proceeds from diamond mining contributed more than three-quarters of total revenue in the sector. Despite this contribution, onshore diamond mining is now coming to an end and the future is seen to lie in marine diamond mining. In 1996, beach and marine mining yielded 43% of the total production estimated at 1.49 million carats. The diamond mining contribution to the GDP was valued at N$2.1 million in 1997.

Exploration for offshore petroleum in Namibia commenced in the 1960s under the aegis of the South African government. The Kudu gas field was discovered off the mouth of the Orange River in 1974, but it was not until the 1980s that economically viable reserves were discovered. These amounted to an estimated 5 trillion cubic feet of gas, and an estimated potential output of 38 million cubic feet of methane gas. To date, however, there is no oil and gas production in Namibia either onshore or offshore, production having been delayed by suppressed world oil prices and the need to secure long term markets for the gas. Recent pronouncements by the government suggest that the development of the Kudu gas field will commence within the next year or two.

7.7 Other Economic Activity

Over and above the primary sectors of mining, fishing, agriculture and tourism, the Namibian economy is not well developed and it remains heavily dependent on South Africa for manufactured goods. Along the Atlantic seaboard a growing interest in eco-tourism has been facilitated by the fact that almost the entire Namibian coastline is managed for conservation, whether as a reserve area (Skeleton Coast Park, National West Coast Tourist Recreation Area and the Namib-Naukluft Park) or as part of a restricted diamond area (the Sperrgebiet). Nevertheless, whilst the potential exists for high cost and low impact tourism into these sensitive areas, sound management will be essential if they are to retain their ecological integrity.

The Cape Fur Seal is harvested off Cape Cross north of Henties Bay. Although stocks are carefully monitored by the Ministry of Fisheries, and off-takes are set accordingly, the annual cull (when this occurs) has been subject to considerable opposition from international environmental groups. Fluctuations in the total seal harvest (which have ranged from 17 000 animals in 1991 to 38 000 in 1994) however, have been influenced more by natural occurrences (a high incidence of pup deaths) than by international pressures.

Due to a poor factor endowment, there are limits to the development potential of Namibia in the short run. On the other hand, the country has a small population and is, by African norms, relatively well developed. The development of the fisheries and tourism sectors, moreover, hold the potential for considerable expansion and job creation. The success of both sectors will, however, hinge on the capacity to manage natural resources effectively. Although progress has been made in this sphere in recent years, much still remains to be done. This will require additional state investment in both sectors as well as intensive training of personnel.

According to the UNDP Human Development Index, South Africa is ranked 89^th in the world and may be considered a country with medium human development. In Africa, however, it ranks 3rd after Tunisia and Algeria. (UNDP; 1998b) In 1998 the GDP per capita was estimated to be US$ 4 334, and the country is, in many respects, the economic powerhouse of southern Africa. Despite its relative wealth, however, South Africa is a highly dualistic society. The poorest 50% of the population receive only 11% of the total income, while the richest 7% receive over 40% of total income. The system of apartheid, moreover, ensured that the distribution of services and access to productive resources was heavily biased in favour of the white minority, and, secondly, in favour of urban populations.

After three hundred years of white minority rule, South Africa underwent a transition to a non-racial multiparty democracy in April 1994. The ending of sanctions and the opening up of the country following the restrictions of apartheid rule, have given rise to new optimism and have presented new opportunities for the development of the country. A primary objective of the new government has been to transform the state and to make in more democratic, accountable and developmental in orientation. The transition process has also been accompanied by a range of social problems including rampant crime and rising unemployment. Nevertheless, following the second democratic elections in June 1999, and the unproblematic transition of power from Mandela to Mbeki, the prospects for the establishment of a strong democratic culture succession

South Africa has an estimated population of 42 million, roughly 50% of whom live in the rural areas. As a consequence of the climate, the topography and the distribution of mineral reserves, the majority of the population reside in the eastern and northern parts of the country. The annual growth rate is 2.4% and the average life expectancy is 67 years (although this is likely to diminish as the HIV/AIDS pandemic spreads).

As a consequence of the availability of jobs and the perceived opportunities of life in an urban area, there has been a constant influx of people into metropolitan Cape Town from the surrounding rural areas and from as far afield as the Eastern Cape Province. Over the course of the past two decades this has led to the growth of extensive informal settlements on the peripheries of Cape Town. With the slow economic growth of the rural hinterland, this trend is unlikely to abate in the near future.

Source: Morant, P., 1999

Although there are numerous small settlements, including fishing villages and recreational resorts, in the BCLME zone in South Africa, the bulk of the population is situated in 9 principal localities between the Orange River mouth and Cape Algulhas. Excluding metropolitan Cape Town, which has a population of 2.5 million, these remaining settlements have a combined estimated population of 100 000. Much of the west coast is extremely sparsely populated, and it is estimated that the entire coastal population north of Saldanha and Veldrif amounts to less than 20 000 people. In terms of most key social indicators, the Western Cape is the most developed region in South Africa. Thus the province has the highest human development index (a composite index based on life expectancy, income and literacy) in the country - the Northern Cape is third. It also has the highest household income levels and the lowest unemployment rates (estimated to be 18.6% in 1995, as opposed to the national norm of 29.3%).

Source: Morant, P., 1999

South Africa has a variable system of social services, extending from excellent in the urban centres to poor in the rural areas. Whilst the provision of basic services (most notably primary health care and water) has improved since 1994, the disparities created by the apartheid era remain. In the rural areas, more than 80% of poor households have no access to piped water or sanitation, 50% have no access to electricity, and transport networks are often poor or non-existent. Although both health and education have been targeted for systematic improvement, considerable restructuring and reform is still required in these two sectors. Services in settlements along the west and south-west coast, whilst in need of improvement, are generally better than in most other rural areas in the country, and most educational, health and welfare facilities are available.

Throughout the country the threat of HIV/AIDS is a growing one, and in 1996 it was estimated that 2.4 million South Africans were infected. In a number of provinces, and most notably in KwaZulu Natal, the incidence of infection amongst adults may be as high as 20%. Generally speaking, those provinces which have incorporated former ethnic homelands are the worst off. As in other parts of Africa, AIDS related death is likely to alter the demography of South Africa markedly. Not only will it slow the overall population growth rate and reduce life expectancy, but dependency ratios will deteriorate as increasing numbers of people in the principle working age cohorts die of the disease. This is likely to lead to greater impoverishment in the South African society, and particularly amongst many already disadvantaged communities.

Despite its relative affluence, metropolitan Cape Town has one of the highest crime rates in the country. This may be ascribed, in part to the legacy of apartheid, which uprooted and destabilised black (predominantly coloured) communities across the Cape Peninsula, and in part to poverty and other social problems. Over and above the fear engendered in the lives of local communities, the high incidence of crime is frequently cited as being a disincentive to tourism and to foreign investment in the province.

Although South Africa as a whole has the most developed physical infrastructure on the continent, the west coast is relatively under-developed. Only the ports of Saldanha and Cape Town are connected to the national rail network. In contrast, an extensive network of well maintained surfaced roads connect the ports and towns of the west coast. The road between Port Nolloth and the Olifants River is the only section which remains gravelled. Cape Town has a major national and inter-national airport, while Alexander Bay and Springbok are connected to regional services.

There are 15 ports on the coast from the Orange River to Agulhas. These vary in sophistication from Table Bay Harbour, which has deep anchorage and dry dock facilities, to sheltered bays of no more than 3 metres depth. There are at least 36 further potential harbours or landing sites between the Orange River and Cape Point.

The bulk of the South African fisheries industry is based in the Western Cape, and close to 90% of all landings are made in Cape harbours. It is estimated that the wholesale value of the countries fisheries industry amounts to some R1.7 billion per annum, which represents 0.5% of the GDP. An estimated 26 000 people are directly employed in the sector. Assuming an average household size of 5 individuals, this would suggest that some 120 000 people are directly reliant on the fisheries sector for their livelihoods. Fish products contribute 1.5% of the GGP of the Western Cape.

In terms of volume, the purse seine fishery for pelagic species is the most important for the industry. In 1995 this amounted to 366 000 tonnes, of which 18% was canned. Most of the remainder was reduced to fish meal. In response to local demand, most of the pelagic fish output is consumed locally and little is exported. The sector is entirely industrialised. From an economic perspective, the trawl fishery is the most important sector of the South African fishing industry, with Hake constituting 70% of the catch by landing and 80% by value. In 1995, the landed value of processed products from a total demersal trawl catch of 162 000 tonnes was nearly R300 million.

The West Coast rock lobster fishery is a major export sector, with about 75% of the catch being exported. In the 1995 season 1 859 tonnes of rock lobster were landed from the West Coast, with a wholesale processed value of R121 million. The rock lobster industry is labour intensive and is the source of employment and income in many fishing villages on the west coast.

The wholesale processed value of all commercial landings of linefish was R118 million in 1995, of which half was snoek caught commercially. A substantial number of linefish are caught by skiboats on a recreational or semi-commercial basis. In a survey conducted in 1996, it was estimated that there were 14 000 recreational fishermen using skiboats.

The power relations which exist in the fishing industry in South Africa are reflective of the political history of South Africa. Ownership has historically been in the hands of whites and fishermen are predominantly black. Apartheid legislation distorted access to natural resources including access to marine resources. Thus of the total allowable catch of 512 347 tons allocated for 1994, only 0.75% were allocated to black people. Reflective of this pattern, of the 2 700 registered commercial fishing boats in South Africa just 7% are owned by blacks. Current government policy aims to address this problem, but the process of redress is not easy due to the fact that many sectors of the disadvantaged community lack the resources to operate at a commercial level. Steps have been initiated to develop a subsistence fisheries sector which would promote opportunities for disadvantaged fishing communities; a formal policy, however, has yet to emerge on this initiative.

The White Paper on Marine Fisheries Policy, published in June 1999, has spelt out an imaginative and ambitious policy framework for the fisheries sector. The key components of this policy are as follows:

• that fisheries management be conducted on a multi-disciplinary basis;

• that all fisheries practices conform to relevant international standards, laws and treaties;

• that levels and patterns of exploitation do not jeopardise the soundness of the resource, its environment or the ecosystem on which bio-diversity and long-term optimal sustainable yields depend;

• that long term management plans should be developed to ensure optimal utilisation of marine resources;

• that the harvesting of one species does not endanger the continued existence, or cause the substantial depletion of any other species;

• that the fishing sectors be subject to environmental audits where applicable;

• that the economic and socio-economic implications of policy options be analysed and acted upon where relevant;

• that the principle of national co-ordination and control over all marine resources be entrenched;

• that cost-effective capacity be put in place to enforce fisheries regulations effectively and to exercise adequate monitoring, control and surveillance;

• that effective training is instituted within the sector as a whole;

• that an integrated development strategy is prepared, together with an implementation plan;

• that comprehensive studies will be conducted to investigate the development of a wider range of mariculture and fish farming activities.

Whilst the White Paper provides an innovative policy framework, it remains a fact that the infrastructure for the management and control of the fisheries sector, has suffered in recent years due to a cut back in state funding and a loss of experienced staff. At the same time, whilst there is adequate legislation in place to ensure regulation of the usage of marine resources, the enforcement of this regulation has often been poor. Poaching of rock lobster and abalone in particular has become a series problem in recent years.

Although diamonds were first discovered in the Kimberley region in 1866, it was not until 1926 that prospecting and mining began on the west coast, and in the area around Port Nolloth. Extensive prospecting in the Namaqualand region subsequently led to the discovery of rich deposits south of the Orange River mouth. Offshore mining, however, did not begin until 1961 when the Marine Diamond Company (MDC), an American owned venture, began experimental dredging of deposits offshore from the Orange River mouth. The success of this company led to a buy out by De Beers conglomerate in 1965. A slump in the diamond market soon after, however, led to a termination of MDC's offshore operations in 1971. A number of smaller companies continued operating from converted fishing vessels, whilst De Beers continued deep water prospecting. In the intervening years small-scale shallow water operations increased in numbers, whilst deep-water operations only really gained momentum in the early 1990s. At present, onshore concessions are mined between the Orange River mouth and the Olifants River. Two major companies, Alexkor (a parastatal organisation currently being privatised) and De Beers Namqualand, dominate diamond production along the western seaboard. A number of smaller concessions operate round the major concessions. (Clarke, et al; 1998)

Offshore concessions in South Africa extend from the Namibian border off the Orange River mouth, to an area just south of Saldanha. Each concession area is divided into four zones: the ‘a’ concession extends from low water to 31.5m offshore, the ‘b’ concession extends from the western boundary of the ‘a’ concession to a co-ordinated boundary approximately 5 km offshore. The ‘c’ concession runs from the western boundary of the ‘b’ concession to the 200m isobath, and the ‘d’ concession runs from the western boundary of ‘c’ concession to the 500m isobath. This arrangement allows for a mix of large and small-scale operators in the industry. However, three companies dominate the offshore diamond industry, namely De Beers Consolidated Mines (mainly mid- to deep-water concessions), Alexkor (mainly shallow water concessions) and Trans Hex (shallow and deep-water concessions). Other significant companies are BHP-Benguela Nominees, Ocean Diamond Mining. De Beers Marine, Namagroen, Benguela Concessions and Marine 17 Mining.

South Africa has 66 registered diamond mining firms in addition to about 1 500 alluvial diggers. In 1996, of the 66 companies operating, 49 produced rough diamonds and 18 were from marine concessions. Production statistics for the country as a whole reflect a fairly stable, but slightly increasing, level of annual diamond production (at around 10 million carats) for the country as a whole. Production from kimberlite sources have remained relatively constant for the past few years, with some fluctuation from year to year, and account for some 89% of all diamonds mined. Alluvial diamond production declined by 245 000 carats on average between the period 1987-1993 and again between 1994-97. In 1997 production increased due to higher output at De Beers Namaqualand and some Trans Hex mines. (Clarke, et al; 1998)

Whilst alluvial diamond output has remained relatively constant in recent years, the production of marine diamonds increased from 53 885 carats for the period 1987-1990 to an average of 147 833 carats between 1991 and 1993. Since then, production has declined (particularly in 1995) due to reduced output from Alexkor's beach and marine resources. At present marine diamonds comprise about 10% of South Africa's total diamond production. In recent months satellite imagery has revealed a new, and potentially rich, diamond field in the vicinity of the Buffels River. De Beers, which announced the find, has yet to provide any indication of the potential yield of the field. (Saturday Argus, 2/10/99)

In 1997 it was estimated that 473 (male) workers were employed in marine diamond production in the Namaqualand region of the Northern Cape; this is relatively few when compared to the 11 000 or so workers employed in on-shore mining activities. Diamond production, as a whole, provides roughly 54% of the Gross Geographic Product (down from 80% in the 1970s) of the Namaqualand region and generates 66% of the employment. Although it is difficult to quantify the direct impact on the mining industry on the regional economy is likely to be significant, due to a multiplicity of forward and backward linkages and a wide range of multiplier effects. In 1997 it was estimated that employees in the Northern Cape earned R553 million.

Since it assumed office in April 1994, the ANC government has striven to broaden public ownership within the mining industry to include more members of the disadvantaged community. At present, the mining industry is heavily dominated by a small number of white owned mining houses. In order to address this, the government is promoting the Employee Share Ownership Participation Scheme (ESOPS), as well as other forms of co-determination within the industry. Whilst attention is being paid to education and training throughout the industry, black empowerment in the mining sector has yet to challenge the existing control of the sector and remains a politically charged issue. Illustrative of this, the allocation of diving concessions has emerged as a controversial issue in the government’s plans to promote greater access to and equity within the sector. While the recent allocation of a share in the rights of Alexkor, has widened ownership, it has also has raised charges of nepotism, of racial exclusion of whites, and of abuse of the system by whites who win concessions through black fronted companies.

8.6 Oil and Gas

Exploration for oil in South Africa began as early as 1946 in the Karoo Basin. In 1965 the parastatal Southern Oil Exploration Corporation (SOEKOR) was established and began offshore exploration. Although concessions were subsequently awarded to a number of international companies, SOEKOR has been the only company operating offshore. Exploration has resulted in 20 gas and 9 oil discoveries. The Mossgas gas field is currently in production, as is the Oribi Oil Field, which is expected to produce 18 million barrels over four years. To date, no offshore oil or gas has been discovered in South African waters in close proximity to the Kudu Gas Field.

South Africa has a large and diverse economy, the output of which is increasingly exported to other parts of the African continent. Economic development along the north-west coast of the country, however, is constrained due to the aridity of the climate. In addition to diamond mining and fishing, agriculture is the only sector of any significance, although indications are that growth in this sector nationally, amounts to less than 1% per annum. Agriculture is, however, the most important primary sector and the largest employer of labour in the Western Cape, providing 9.2% of all formal and informal jobs. Deciduous fruit accounts for 85% of all total export earnings in the sector, followed by grapes and wines. In 1996 South Africa was the world’s seventh largest wine producer. In addition to the earnings generated through the production of wine, tourism has become an important spin-off of the wine industry. The various wine routes (of which there are 18) attract visitors from all over the world.

With the ending of apartheid isolation, Cape Town and the South Western Cape have emerged as the premier tourist destinations in South Africa. Although tourism currently contributes only 8.7% to the GRP, the sector has considerable potential for further expansion (SARB, 1998). Manufacturing is the largest sector of the provincial economy and currently comprises 23.8% of the regional economy. This is followed finance and trade, which respectively comprise 16% and 12% of the regional economy.

For a variety of reasons, including a well developed physical infrastructure, a developed industrial sector, a skilled work force and a democratic elected government, South Africa holds considerable development potential. The realisation of this potential will be dependent on a variety of factors including investor confidence in the country, the stability of international markets (and their scepticism of emerging economies), the deregulation of the economy, improved competitiveness, reduced crime and corruption and the maintenance of political stability.

Whilst there are some limits to the development of the Northern Cape, the Province of the Western Cape holds the potential of developing as an internationally acclaimed tourist destination. This development will, inevitably, increase impact on surrounding seas, whether in terms of direct exploitation of marine resources, an increase in boat traffic, increased pollution etc. It could also, however, prompt moves to introduce more stringent measures to manage marine resources in a more sustainable manner.

Human threats to the BCLME come in many forms and vary according to the locality. At the most basic level these relate to the over-exploitation of marine resources, but pollution, disturbance of the environment (especially through mining), and excessive marine traffic, to mention but a few, pose further threats to the marine ecology. Amongst the most direct social and economic threats are likely to be the following:

Population growth rates in all three BCLME countries are high (between 2% and 3% per annum). Coupled with this, a variety of factors, including war (in Angola) and a range of push and pull factors associated with rural/urban migration, are drawing people to the cities and towns of the west coast. Unless carefully planned and regulated, this rapid increase in population will inevitably impact on the marine ecology. Amongst the most direct threats are likely to be the following:

• the increased discharged of effluent into the surrounding sea - this is a particular danger in Angola, where municipal infrastructure has collapsed, but it also remains a threat in Namibia and South Africa;

• increased usage and over exploitation of marine resources;

• increased commercial and private marine traffic (in addition to the threat of pollution, this could threaten whale sanctuaries and bird and seal breeding colonies);

• increased usage of beaches and inter-tidal zones.

Rapid population growth will, however, be offset to an extent by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which is already altering demographic patterns in the region.

Whilst the regulation of population growth is a complex process linked to improved welfare and education, conservation policies in the BCLME will need constantly to factor in the inevitability of population increase.

The political status of countries in the region will impact on the BCLME both directly and indirectly. Political instability and war, as in Angola, diminish the capacity of governments to maintain the rule of law and in such circumstances they are incapable of enforcing legislation, however worthy that might be. The legitimacy of governments, likewise, will influence the extent to which communities respect the laws established to protect the marine ecology. Civil unrest also diverts attention and finances away from conservation towards security and survival. Whilst democracy is not a sufficient condition for the introduction of effective conservation policies, its absence is likely to inhibit the process considerably.

The promotion of greater equity in the access to marine resources, whilst socially and politically necessary, could lead to the introduction of policies and administrative practices which are not always ecologically sound. This is a threat in South Africa, where the government, in its efforts to break the white minority monopoly over the usage of marine resources appears, has seemed politically hesitant to stamp out widespread poaching of abalone and crayfish.

The economic standing of countries within the region will determine the extent to which they are able to support conservation programmes and marine-based industries. Levels of state expenditure will critically affect support for and regulation of the fishing industry, in particular. A lack of financial resources is severely inhibiting research, monitoring, surveillance and control in Angola. At the same time, fiscal restraints in South Africa, have forced cutbacks in marine research and in the monitoring and control of marine reserves. A shortage of funds to conduct the necessary scientific research to determine the status of marine resources, in particular, could adversely affect the longer term sustainability of current off-take. Similar concerns relate to a shortage of funds to procure scientific equipment, to purchase surveillance vehicles and to recruit and train staff.

Although all three countries in the BCLME region have, to a lesser or greater extent, the requisite legal frameworks to regulate and control the utilisation of marine resources, it is evident that the administrative capacity and political will to ensure compliance is both erratic and variable. In that respect, it would appear necessary that the costs of enforcing legislation need to be carefully estimated and budgeted for. Penalties for the infringement of legislation, in certain contexts, also appear inadequate to deter offenders.

Fish stocks and other marine resources are shared between neighbouring countries (and particularly by Angola and Namibia) implying that management policy as well as the monitoring and control of stocks will need to be well co-ordinated. For a variety of reasons, including differential capacity and resources, this is not taking place. Recognition of the fact that the BCLME is a continuous ecological system which will need to be managed on a regional rather than national basis, has yet to be widely understood or appreciated by policy makers in all three countries. Boundary disputes between neighbouring states and other forms of inter-state tension could also inhibit efforts to set up and maintain management programmes. In this context, current regional initiatives , such as the current BCLME research programme, need to be broadened and dialogue between the political leadership extended.

Whilst a comprehensive legislative framework is essential to establish an effective surveillance and monitoring system, the administrative capacity to ensure that the laws are enforced is equally important. In different ways, all three countries in the BCLME suffer from shortfalls in administrative capacity. In that respect, there is a need for the recruitment of appropriate numbers of staff, for their training, and for the equipment necessary to support their activities.

As a legacy of colonialism and apartheid rule, of poverty and limited education, popular understandings of the need for marine conservation is limited and conservation policies are seen as favouring the elites of society. These perceptions have been reinforced by legislation (especially in South Africa) which has historically excluded the majority. Unless governments in the BCLME region are able both to promote greater equity in the access to resources (and thereby underscore the popular legitimacy of their policies) and to conduct public campaigns to emphasise the crucial need for conservation, the enforcement of conservation policies is likely to be a constant struggle.

The impact of both existing and future mining operations will inevitably impact negatively on the marine environment. Thus, for example, although the dramatic decrease in Namibian rock lobster catches in the 1990s make be attributed to large scale environmental perturbations which have periodically occurred in the system, it is also evident they have also been influenced by the negative environmental impacts of marine diamond mining. Although regulation of this industry in both Namibia and in South Africa’s Northern Cape province is intended to keep negative impacts to a minimum, it

is evident that some damage will always occur and that this is likely to be aggravated if surveillance and monitoring of the industry is less than optimal.

Whilst the long term future of the BCLME will be determined by the management policies and the resources committed by the three countries in the ecological region, the success of current initiatives to set in place a policy framework for the region will be influenced by the extent to which donor agencies are persuaded to extend their support. This is especially the case in Angola, where there is little national funding available to pursue regional initiatives of this nature.

Dr Barry Clark - Anchor Environmental Consultants, University of Cape Town

Mr Andrew Cockcroft - Subsistence Fisheries Task Group, Department of Sea Fisheries, Cape Town

Dr David Cownie - Director, SIAPAC Namibia, Windhoek

Mr Ian Hampton - Fisheries Consultant, Cape Town

Mr Francois Odendaal - EcoAfrica, Cape Town

Dr Andy Payne - Director, Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Cape Town

11.0  Bibliography

Botelle, A., Fuller, B., and Tapscott, C., "Down-Scaling of CDM Mining Operations in the Sperregebiet: A Socio-economic Impact Analysis", (SSD, University of Namibia, March 1994).

Central Statistics Office, "1991 Population and Housing Census: Report A - Statistical Tables" (Vols. I, II and III, National Planning Commission, Windhoek, 1993).

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