Emissions to the Danube have decreased substantially, but these reductions are not yet reflected in substantially decreased nutrient loads to the Black Sea. The Danube is clearly the single largest source of entry of both freshwater and pollutants to the Black Sea and river pollution loads far exceed those of direct municipal/industrial sources with nutrient loads from coastal point sources (direct municipal and industrial discharges) a fraction of the load from rivers to the Sea. This suggests that capital investments to upgrade coastal hot-spots are likely to have limited effects on transboundary pollution, although local environmental improvements are likely to be much greater. Available data suggest that atmospheric deposition could be an entry pathway for a similar load of nitrogen to that transported by rivers. However, there is considerable uncertainty over this assessment.

Since 1997 there has been a continued decrease in livestock numbers, and therefore livestock manure as a source of pollution. Agriculture is now much more extensive than it was in the late-80s but some indicators suggest that the decline in arable agricultural productivity has bottomed-out and the region may be facing a renewed period of increasing inorganic fertiliser use.

The harvesting of commercial marine living resources appears to have increased, but whether the situation has improved or not since 1996 is really not known. Reported fish landings are now about half of what they were in the 1980s.

The exploitation of marine living resources, in particular fisheries, represents an important economic sector which has a substantial social impact for local communities throughout the Black Sea region. However, the management of this resource is generally considered to be poor. There has been only limited restructuring of fishing fleets, the continued use of non-sustainable fishing technologies and non-selective fishing gear and illegal fishing practices are placing great pressure on the environment.

The sustainable management of fish stocks has been hampered by the lack of complete or comparable fish stock assessments. In particular, there is a contradiction between increases in fishing effort and the purported increase in knowledge about the management of fisheries in the Black Sea region. This is compounded by the fact that fisheries statistics, and fish stock assessment and monitoring activities are fragmented and irregular at the national level and not compatible for regional purposes.

In the case of shared and migratory species, no regionally agreed system exists to match fishing effort to stocks. In addition, national fishing zones have not yet been established between all coastal Black Sea countries.

In addition to over exploitation, Black Sea marine living resources have also been affected by environmental degradation, notably eutrophication-linked hypoxic events, alien species introductions (notably Mnemiopsis leidyi), physical changes to the environment (through construction, damming, drainage, and maintenance of shipping channels etc.),  dumping of polluted sediments dredged from ports and microbiological pollution of shallow waters.

Fisheries management presents serious challenges for all countries, but perhaps the greatest challenge will be for Turkey, which has (by far) the largest fishing fleet and greatest number of nationals employed in this industry.

The impacts of pollution in the Black Sea often occur not only in the immediate areas in which they originate, but throughout the region as a whole. An assessment of pollutant loads from river and large direct municipal/industrial discharges was hampered by the lack of  pollution load data with BOD5 being the only parameter (apart from nutrients) that is currently routinely monitored from major point sources and rivers.

The Danube BOD5 loads during the early 2000s are reported to have decreased to about half of the level during the late 1990s which represents a truly remarkable achievement if the results are to be believed. However, the earlier data are from a period when analytical quality assurance procedures were not as robust as they are currently and consequently, this trend should be treated with caution.

Land-based sources of biodegradable organic matter continue to contribute to organic enrichment of coastal waters and sediments, in particular those under the influence of waters entering the Sea from the Danube and Dniester. This enrichment promotes the growth and dominance of phytoplankton and has resulted in reduced dissolved oxygen levels and mass mortalities of zoobenthos and fish.

Relatively high contamination levels of some pesticides (e.g. DDT), heavy metals and PCBs are present at specific sites in the Black Sea with illegal dumping and discharge (particularly of agrochemicals) being recognised as a problem. The historical poor enforcement of discharge standards and a failure to consider the Sea itself as a receiving waterbody for riverine discharges are considered to be the principal reasons underlying the pollution status of the Sea.

A huge increase in the volume of oil being transported across the Black Sea and oil/gas extraction from beneath the Sea itself has greatly increased the risk of oil pollution from shipping and offshore oil/gas installations. A single large-scale accident could have devastating consequences for the whole region.

All 5 habitat types within the coastal margin ecotones category are considered to be in a critical status in at least one country; both types of benthic pelagic habitat (neritic and open sea) are considered critical in at least one country; and 13 of 37 types of benthic habitat are considered to be critical in at least one country. Those most at risk include neritic water column, coastal lagoon, estuaries/delta and coastal wetlands/saltmarsh habitats. The designation of additional Marine Protected Areas is required to protect these habitats.

Changes in aquatic coastal habitats are varied and are dependant on the intensity of environmental pressures at the sub-regional level. The Danube Delta and the Bulgarian coastal wetlands probably continue to experience diversity decline and impaired ecological status compared to the 1960s, despite the considerable reduction in habitat degradation due to the designation of extensive protected areas and the implementation of management plans aimed at biodiversity and water quality restoration. The Dnipro Delta and the Turkish coastal aquatic habitats have continued to decline due to eutrophication and pollution.

Changes in the pelagic ecosystem towards the end of the 1990s reflects healthier conditions, especially in the Formerly “dead” areas of the NW Shelf, where decreased nutrient loads were coupled with favourable climatic change. However, the once massive Zernov’s Phyllophora field has decreased hugely in area, having been replaced by other, opportunistic macroalgae. Similarly, during the last two decades, the area covered by eelgrass (Zostera) has decreased tenfold in shallow waters. Despite the signs of recovery (rise of zooplankton and small pelagic fish stocks) the habitat shows a state of ecological instability, as well as sustained significant stock decline of large pelagic fish species. Biodiversity changes in the SE Black Sea area remain unclear either due to insufficient research or a lack of provided data.

The orıgınal Black Sea SAP was over-ambıtıous in its aims, due to its focus on point source emissions to the Sea. Of the 50 hot-spots identified for capital investment from the 1996 TDA, only 12 of these investments have been completed and there are either no, or only partial plans to tackle over half of the originally identified priority point sources of pollution.

The emphasis of the next SAP should be broadened to include diffuse sources of chemical (including nutrient) pollution.

The issue of cost-effectiveness in tackling transboundary issues needs to be dealt with robustly. There are clear governmental costs associated with capital investments required to tackle point sources, but for diffuse source pollution the costs may be borne largely by farmers. For example, the costs for introducing/enforcing an agricultural soil nutrient testing programme could be recouped by farmers from savings made in reduced inorganic fertilser application rates.

The establishment of the Black Sea Commission and its Permanent Secretariat should have been identified as a “call to arms” by coastal country governments to tackle the transboundary issues faced and caused by the Sea, but national support to the Commission (outside of the fees paid to support the Permanent Secretariat) has been limited in some cases, hampering its progress. The Commission is over-burdoned, having too many roles/tasks for the resources (financial and staffing) available to it. Either its priorities need to be re-defined (narrowed) or the resources available to it enhanced.

National reporting to the Black Sea Commission Permanent Secretariat has been of highly variable quality. One of the Commission’s most important tasks should be the collation and analysis of data from the six coastal countries to support national and international investments to tackle the transboundary problems of the Sea. Examples are given throughout this document where reported data are either incompatible, missing or highly innaccurate. These issue need to be addressed as a matter of urgency.

The Black Sea Integrated Monitoring and Assessment Programme (BSIMAP) remains under-funded in Ukraine and Georgia. Repairs to the Bulgarian sampling vessel have also hindered the collection of samples/data. The recent (2004/5) expansion of the Turkish BSIMAP programme represented a substantial step forward and a great deal of coastal water monitoring is clearly undertaken in Russian coastal waters, but relatively little of this national data is made available to the Commission.

National cooperation between different institutes and ministries responsible for Black Sea regulation/monitoring requires improving in most countries. EU Accession has provided an enormous stimulus to Bulgarian and Romanian responses to Black Sea environmental issues, and is begining to have a similar effect on Turkish funding/willingness to more effectively tackle some of the Sea’s transboundary problems.