Detailed climate agreement in December "unlikely"

Thursday 19 March 2009

A global climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012 is now a strong possibility, but a detailed agreement is unlikely to emerge by the end of the year, delegates at this week's Carbon Market Insights conference in Copenhagen agreed.

Most delegates said a framework agreement covering broad principles for developed and developing countries is likely to emerge through the Copenhagen summit in December 2009. But details will be hammered out over the months and even years ahead.

EU climate chief Yvo de Boer and deputy director-general of the European commission's environment department Jos Delbeke clashed over developed country funding for greenhouse gas mitigation and a proposed reform of the UN's clean development mechanism (CDM).

Mr Delbeke complained that the level of demands for funding of developing country mitigation were "way beyond what is possible". "I think some realism has to come into the debate", he said.

Mr de Boer criticised EU finance ministers' failure to come up with an amount (EE 10/03/09 http://www.endseurope.com/20865 ; EE 19/03/09 http://www.endseurope.com/20942), and complained they were now insisting on comprehensive national strategies being in place in developing countries. This "goes beyond what was agreed in that fragile agreement in Bali [which] needs to be respected if we are to get a deal in Copenhagen", he said.

The UN climate chief objected to the caricaturing of major emitters in the developing world as having done nothing. Several countries, including Mexico have proposed targets, and China is one of the largest investors in renewables, he pointed out.

Mr de Boer also defended the role of the CDM mechanism as having spurred large-scale private investment and engaged developing countries in emissions reduction.

Both EU and US players see a role for a reformed CDM alongside cap-and-trade, and benefits in moving to a "sectoral crediting" mechanism to replace CDM, but the uncertainty created has unsettled the market.

Follow-up: Carbon Market Insights conference http://www.pointcarbon.com/events/conferences/cmi09/1.986082

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