IEA presents grim reality check on climate goals

2656, 12/11/08

Limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius presents the world with an "immense" challenge, the International energy agency (IEA) said on Wednesday in its latest World energy outlook.

"Leaving aside any debate about the political feasibility.. it is uncertain whether the scale of the transformation envisaged is even technically achievable," it says.  The technology shift required would "certainly be unprecedented in scale and speed" and assumes "broad deployment of technologies that have not yet been proven".

Earlier this year the IEA's head Nobuo Tanaka said a global energy revolution was "achievable" provided there was massive investment in clean energy technologies (EED 06/06/08 http://www.endseuropedaily.com/25584).  The credit crunch must not delay spending, he emphasised in London on Wednesday.

Politically, the two degrees target is also problematic.  "The 2030 emissions level for the world as a whole in this scenario is less than the level of projected emissions for non-OECD countries alone in the reference scenario," according to the IEA's report.

This means developing countries must also cut emissions.  The EU is calling for them to commit to cuts of 15-30 per cent below business as usual under a new international climate treaty due to be sealed in Copenhagen next year (EED 20/10/08 http://www.endseuropedaily.com/26392).  But developing countries have long resisted such calls (EED 09/07/08 http://www.endseuropedaily.com/25813).

The extra global energy investment needed to limit warming to two degrees is US$9.3 trillion (E7.3 trillion) between 2010 and 2030, calculates the IEA.  The agency predicts fuel savings totalling E4.5 trillion under this scenario.  Scientists have long said temperature rise must be limited to two degrees to avoid catastrophe.  The EU has adopted this as its official target (EED 06/08/08 http://www.endseuropedaily.com/25971).

Under the IEA's reference scenario, which assumes no new government policies, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will double by the end of this century, entailing a global temperature rise of up to six degrees Celsius.

Follow-up: IEA http://www.iea.org/, tel: plus press release http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275 and report homepage http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=353.

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