The Black Sea Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (2007)

The 2007 Black Sea TDA is the first significant update of the original Black Sea TDA finalized in June 1996 under the GEF Black Sea Environmental Programme (BSEP).

The 1996 Black Sea TDA was a technical document which examined the root causes of Black Sea degradation and options for actions which could be taken to address them. It examined each major environmental problem, the stakeholders involved in the problem and the uncertainties in the information describing the problem. It then proposed solutions, time frames and costs.

The development of the 1996 TDA was a carefully implemented technical process spanning more than two years. Initially, a series of thematic analyses were conducted at a national level and then integrated by a group of regional and international specialists in order to construct the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) of the Black Sea

. On the basis of this document, senior government officials negotiated the Black Sea Strategic Action Plan (BS-SAP) which was signed on October 31st 1996, at the Black Sea Ministerial Conference in Istanbul.

The 2007 Black Sea TDA was expected to build on the existing 1996 document and it was anticipated that it wouldn’t adhere to the traditional TDA development process (as generally used in 1st phase International Waters projects). However, current GEF requirements for TDA development mean that the process needed to follow the GEF IW TDA/SAP “best practice” approach . This required careful management of the process between the Black Sea Project Implementation Unit (PIU) and the Secretariat of the Black Sea Commission.

Consequently, the 2007 Black Sea TDA, developed between 20th December 2005 and 29th May 2007, is an objective, non-negotiated assessment using best available verified scientific information which examines the state of the environment and the root causes for its degradation. It will provide the factual basis for the formulation of the revised Black Sea SAP, which will embody specific actions (policy, legal, institutional reforms or investments) that can be adopted nationally, usually within a harmonized multinational context, to address the major priority transboundary problems, and over the longer term restore or protect the Black Sea ecosystem.

The process proceeded according to the following ‘Best Practice’ steps:

Identification and initial prioritisation of transboundary problems
Gathering and interpreting information on environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences of each problem
Causal chain analysis (including root causes)
Completion of an analysis of institutions, laws, policies and projected investments

The TDA focuses on transboundary problems without ignoring national concerns and priorities and identifies information gaps, policy distortions and institutional deficiencies. The analysis is cross-sectoral and examines national economic development plans, civil society (including private sector) awareness and participation, the regulatory and institutional framework and sectoral economic policies.

The first step in the TDA process was to agree on an initial list of transboundary problems in the Black Sea, examine their transboundary relevance and scope, and determine preliminary priorities.

At the first TDA TTT meeting (11th April 2006), the TTT, made up of 22 experts from the Black Sea countries

, brainstormed the list of 23 common GEF transboundary problems in order to determine their relevance and transboundary nature in the context of the Black Sea.

The priority transboundary problems were identified by assigning a score to each problem of between 0 (no importance), 1 (low importance), 2 (moderate importance) and 3 (high importance) to determine the relevance of the problem from the perspective of the present day and 10-15 years in the future. When examining future change the TTT were asked to consider the effects of climate change. The scoring activity was based on the following suite of criteria:

Transboundary nature of a problem.
Scale of impacts of a problem on economic terms, the environment and human health.
Relationship with other environmental problems.
Expected multiple benefits that might be achieved by addressing a problem.
Lack of perceived progress in addressing/solving a problem at the national level.
Recognised multi-country water conflicts.
Reversibility/irreversibility of the problem

Thematic Reports were drafted by selected members of the TTT (Team Leaders). The list of the Thematic Reports is shown below:

Thematic report on Habitat loss/ Biodiversity
Thematic report on Causal Chain Analysis
Thematic report on Fisheries
Thematic report on pollution loads
Thematic report on pollution assessment
Stakeholders Analysis
Socio- economic Assessment
Governance Analysis

Each review and report used a similar structure and the Team Leaders were asked to produce reports that: described the particular problem; identified any gaps in knowledge; identified the environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences; detailed the immediate and underlying causes of the impacts and consequences; and listed proposed options for addressing the identified problem. Consequently, the Thematic Reports constituted the main sources of information for the TDA.

The CCA methodology developed for this TDA was based on that described in the GEF ‘Best Practice’ approach and tried to relate the transboundary problems with their impacts, immediate physical causes, underlying causes (divided into resource uses and socio-economic causes) and root causes. A simple step by step guide to the process is shown in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1 Stepwise sectoral analysis approach to developing a causal chain

The CCA process was iterative and consultative, with several versions being developed by the CCA team leader after successive consultations with the international consultant, the Black Sea Project Implementation Unit (PIU), the TDA TTT and CCA National Experts.

Draft CCAs were presented at the second TDA TTT Meeting (July 6th, 2006) and a Delphi Exercise was performed during the meeting to help identify further causes. Based on this input, sectoral CCAs were re-drafted.

The revised versions were reviewed by the PIU and the International Consultant and were then sent to the TDA TTT leaders for further approval. These versions were checked by the CCA National Experts for relevance in the 6 Black Sea countries.

The hot-spots analysis presented ın thıs TDA does not include an update of the list of 50 hot-spots identified in the 1996 TDA, but rather an assessment of progress made in addressing the original list of pollution sources in terms of undertaking the capital investments originally identified. In addition, where data have been provided, the measured pollution loads from individual hot-spots are calculated. The loads cited in the 1996 TDA were modelled using the Rapid Assessment Methodology.

The Black Sea Stakeholder Analysis involved conducting quantitative surveys of stakeholders throughout the region. This analysis identifies stakeholders of the Black Sea Ecosystem Recovery Project and provides insights into the concerns, priorities, capacities and perceptions of stakeholder groups throughout the region in regards to specific transboundary environmental issues. This also identifies where tensions or potential tensions could emerge as a result of different expectations and priorities for Black Sea resource uses.

The stakeholder analysis methodology involves identifying stakeholder groups through desk studies, consultation with project staff, and review of issues, thematic reports, historical project materials socio-economic and government structures throughout the region. Following this the survey was developed following consultation with earlier stakeholder analyses in the region, surveys conducted by NGOs, reports from the project. The conclusions of these were combined with findings of the Causal Chain Analysis conducted within the scope of the current TDA and based on these sources, survey questions were developed.

The survey was conducted in all six Black Sea countries among 42 different stakeholder groups. Surveys were translated into local languages and were administered by national level stakeholder consultants throughout the region. A total of 368 surveys were collected and statistically analyzed for trends among and between groups. Areas of notably high and low priority concern or high levels of variation within groups were detailed and analyzed for the potential causality and significance of these trends. Issues which showed potential for conflict between groups were highlighted.

The Governance Analysis involved a regional assessment of the institutional and policy/legal instruments based on the existing analysis/reports under the Black Sea Ecosystem Recovery Project. This analysis identifies institutional involvement in Black Sea related environmental problems, as well as the existing global/regional/national policies and provides insights into the coordination mechanisms, enforcement capacity and implementation results at regional level in respect to the priority Black Sea transboundary problems. It also identifies the gaps and obstacles in adapting or reforming the policy/legal framework.

The Governance Analysis methodology involved a review of the thematic reports as well as desk studies and consultation with national experts. The Stakeholders Analysis findings and the Causal Chain Analysis results conducted within the scope of the current TDA are also included.

A questionnaire was developed in order to review the actual national institutional structures capacity and resources, together with the current relevant legal instruments, with special emphasis on their actual implementation, compliance and enforcement. The review was conducted in all six Black Sea Countries by the TDA TTT National Experts.