Assessment of Implication of Different Policy Scenarios on Nutrient Inputs (2005-2006)

Background:

HELCOM 25/2004 decided that one of the future priority activities of HELCOM LAND is the use of models to assess the implications of different policy scenarios on nutrient inputs and the resulting eutrophication status in order to indicate the most cost-effective measures to be undertaken in the different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea.

Most of the models considered in HELCOM work have so far been ecological models related to the assessment of effects to the sea. The basis of the effect models are the scenarios of activities on land. Therefore it would be important to further consider the possibility to link management scenario models with ecological models in order to assess the focus of measures in the future work to reduce nutrient inputs.

Aims:

The aim of the project is to assess the impact of different agricultural policy scenarios in HELCOM Contracting Parties on nutrient inputs in the Baltic Sea catchment area and on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea.

The final aim is to enable the identification of cost-effective measures in the different parts of the Baltic Sea catchment area required to achieve good ecological status throughout the Baltic Sea area.

Actions:

The project would include the following steps:

1.         Further development of activities for the reduction of nutrient losses from agriculture based on the outcome of the HELCOM ministerial Meeting in Bremen 2003

2.         Development of scenarios for measures in the field of agriculture

3.         Contribution from MARE:

- As a first step MARE is requested to report on the information needed from the Contracting Parties to incorporate the catchment area model in NEST;
- MARE should incorporate the catchment area model in NEST;
- MARE should evaluate the effectiveness regarding inputs to, concentrations of nutrients and selected biological quality parameters in the Baltic Sea as well as for costs of the scenarios individually or combined as proposed by HELCOM LAND developed in step 2;
- MARE should give some estimations on the timelag from implemented measures to full effects in river mouths, coastal areas and open sea areas

4.         Assessment of impacts of the results from the input scenarios on the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

5.         Identification of cost-effective measures       

Contacts:

Mr Mikhail Durkin
Professional Secretary
Helsinki Commission
Katajanokanlaituri 6 B
00160 Helsinki
Tel: +358-9-6220 220
E-mail: mikhail.durkin@helcom.fi